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Tanganyika vs Sanga Balende — Ligue 1 2019

Tanganyika
Tanganyika
FT
3 – 0
Sanga Balende
Sanga Balende
6/21/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Championship Round - 14Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Tanganyika54%
×Draw27%
Sanga Balende20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanganyika
1.47
Sanga Balende
0.78

Tanganyika creates 88% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 84 away

creates per match

Tanganyika
1.54
Sanga Balende
0.63

allows per match

Tanganyika
0.94
Sanga Balende
1.40

finishing

Tanganyika+0.00on par
Sanga Balende+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanganyika ↓

Sanga Balende →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tanganyika or draw
80%
Tanganyika or Sanga Balende
73%
Draw or Sanga Balende
46%

Winning margin

Tanganyika wins by 2+
27%
Sanga Balende wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tanganyika 1+ goals
77%
Tanganyika 2+ goals
43%
Tanganyika 3+ goals
18%
Sanga Balende 1+ goals
54%
Sanga Balende 2+ goals
18%
Sanga Balende 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tanganyika (draw refunded)
73%
Sanga Balende (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanganyika at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.94 · 35 matches

Sanga Balende away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanganyika attack 1.54 + Sanga Balende defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.47

Sanga Balende attack 0.63 + Tanganyika defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tanganyika scores more
54%
level
27%
Sanga Balende scores more
20%

Tanganyika at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tanganyika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Tanganyika 3–0 Sanga Balende

Tanganyika beat Sanga Balende 3-0 in Ligue 1 on June 21, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba in Lubumbashi.