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Sanga Balende vs Tanganyika — Ligue 1 2019

Sanga Balende
Sanga Balende
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tanganyika
Tanganyika
5/4/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Championship Round - 3Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sanga Balende43%
×Draw29%
Tanganyika28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanga Balende
1.23
Tanganyika
0.93

Sanga Balende creates 32% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 31 away

creates per match

Sanga Balende
1.17
Tanganyika
0.94

allows per match

Sanga Balende
0.92
Tanganyika
1.29

finishing

Sanga Balende+0.00on par
Tanganyika+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanga Balende ↓

Tanganyika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sanga Balende or draw
72%
Sanga Balende or Tanganyika
71%
Draw or Tanganyika
57%

Winning margin

Sanga Balende wins by 2+
19%
Tanganyika wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sanga Balende 1+ goals
71%
Sanga Balende 2+ goals
35%
Sanga Balende 3+ goals
13%
Tanganyika 1+ goals
61%
Tanganyika 2+ goals
24%
Tanganyika 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sanga Balende (draw refunded)
61%
Tanganyika (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanga Balende at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.92 · 78 matches

Tanganyika away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanga Balende attack 1.17 + Tanganyika defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Tanganyika attack 0.94 + Sanga Balende defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sanga Balende scores more
43%
level
29%
Tanganyika scores more
28%

Sanga Balende at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sanga Balende will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Sanga Balende 0–1 Tanganyika

Tanganyika beat Sanga Balende 1-0 in Ligue 1 on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba in Lubumbashi.