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Tanganyika vs Anges Verts — Ligue 1 2019

Tanganyika
Tanganyika
CANC
11:00
Anges Verts
Anges Verts
7/9/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Championship Round - 19Stade du TP Mazembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tanganyika59%
×Draw24%
Anges Verts17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanganyika
1.69
Anges Verts
0.78

Tanganyika creates 117% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 30 away

creates per match

Tanganyika
1.54
Anges Verts
0.63

allows per match

Tanganyika
0.94
Anges Verts
1.83

finishing

Tanganyika+0.00on par
Anges Verts+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanganyika ↓

Anges Verts →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tanganyika or draw
83%
Tanganyika or Anges Verts
76%
Draw or Anges Verts
41%

Winning margin

Tanganyika wins by 2+
33%
Anges Verts wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tanganyika 1+ goals
82%
Tanganyika 2+ goals
50%
Tanganyika 3+ goals
24%
Anges Verts 1+ goals
54%
Anges Verts 2+ goals
18%
Anges Verts 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tanganyika (draw refunded)
78%
Anges Verts (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanganyika at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.94 · 35 matches

Anges Verts away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanganyika attack 1.54 + Anges Verts defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.69

Anges Verts attack 0.63 + Tanganyika defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Tanganyika scores more
59%
level
24%
Anges Verts scores more
17%

Tanganyika at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Tanganyika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tanganyika vs Anges Verts — Match Preview

Tanganyika face Anges Verts on July 9, 2025 in this Ligue 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Tanganyika host Anges Verts at Stade du TP Mazembe.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.