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Anges Verts vs Tanganyika — Ligue 1 2019

Anges Verts
Anges Verts
FT
1 – 0
HT: 2 – 3
Tanganyika
Tanganyika
5/28/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Championship Round - 8Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Anges Verts37%
×Draw27%
Tanganyika36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anges Verts
1.23
Tanganyika
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

creates per match

Anges Verts
1.16
Tanganyika
0.94

allows per match

Anges Verts
1.48
Tanganyika
1.29

finishing

Anges Verts+0.00on par
Tanganyika+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anges Verts ↓

Tanganyika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Anges Verts or draw
64%
Anges Verts or Tanganyika
73%
Draw or Tanganyika
63%

Winning margin

Anges Verts wins by 2+
16%
Tanganyika wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Anges Verts 1+ goals
71%
Anges Verts 2+ goals
35%
Anges Verts 3+ goals
13%
Tanganyika 1+ goals
70%
Tanganyika 2+ goals
34%
Tanganyika 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Anges Verts (draw refunded)
51%
Tanganyika (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anges Verts at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

Tanganyika away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anges Verts attack 1.16 + Tanganyika defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Tanganyika attack 0.94 + Anges Verts defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Anges Verts scores more
37%
level
27%
Tanganyika scores more
36%

Anges Verts at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Anges Verts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Anges Verts 1 – 0 Tanganyika

Anges Verts beat Tanganyika 1-0 in Ligue 1 on May 28, 2025.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.