Tanabi 1–0 Assisense: Result & Stats

Tanabi

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Assisense

Joao Vitor 60'

8/2/2025

Paulista Série B · 2nd Phase - 6Estádio Prefeito Alberto Víctolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tanabi55%

×Draw29%

Assisense16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TanabiExpected goals in this matchAssisense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.58

Tanabi

1.32

Assisense

0.58

Tanabi creates 128% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

1.50

creates per match

0.77

0.39

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Tanabi

1.50

Assisense

0.77

allows per match

Tanabi

0.39

Assisense

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tanabi+0.00on par

Assisense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanabi ↓

Assisense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–19%

0–23%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Tanabi or draw

84%

Tanabi or Assisense

71%

Draw or Assisense

45%

Winning margin

Tanabi wins by 2+

26%

Assisense wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Tanabi 1+ goals

73%

Tanabi 2+ goals

38%

Tanabi 3+ goals

15%

Assisense 1+ goals

44%

Assisense 2+ goals

12%

Assisense 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Tanabi (draw refunded)

77%

Assisense (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanabi at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.39 · 18 matches

Assisense away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanabi attack 1.50 + Assisense defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.32

Assisense attack 0.77 + Tanabi defence 0.39 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tanabi scores more

55%

level

29%

Assisense scores more

16%

Tanabi at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tanabi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'

Joao Vitor

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff