Assisense 0–2 Tanabi: Result & Stats

Assisense

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Tanabi

Maicon 58', 16'

6/27/2025

Paulista Série B · 2nd Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Antônio Viana da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Assisense37%

×Draw24%

Tanabi39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AssisenseExpected goals in this matchTanabi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.55

Assisense

1.49

Tanabi

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

1.92

creates per match

1.33

1.77

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Assisense

1.92

Tanabi

1.33

allows per match

Assisense

1.77

Tanabi

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Assisense+0.00on par

Tanabi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Assisense ↓

Tanabi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Assisense or draw

61%

Assisense or Tanabi

76%

Draw or Tanabi

63%

Winning margin

Assisense wins by 2+

17%

Tanabi wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Assisense 1+ goals

77%

Assisense 2+ goals

44%

Assisense 3+ goals

19%

Tanabi 1+ goals

79%

Tanabi 2+ goals

46%

Tanabi 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Assisense (draw refunded)

48%

Tanabi (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Assisense at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Tanabi away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Assisense attack 1.92 + Tanabi defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.49

Tanabi attack 1.33 + Assisense defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Assisense scores more

37%

level

24%

Tanabi scores more

39%

Tanabi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tanabi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Maicon

58'

Maicon

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff