Tanabi SP U20 0–3 Jose Bonifacio EC U20

Tanabi SP U20

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Jose Bonifacio EC U20

M. Vergara 57'

F. Davi 56'

N. Moreira 32'

6/7/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Prefeito Alberto Víctolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Tanabi SP U2028%

×Draw25%

Jose Bonifacio EC U2047%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tanabi SP U20Expected goals in this matchJose Bonifacio EC U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.63

Tanabi SP U20

1.20

Jose Bonifacio EC U20

1.63

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 11 away

0.76

creates per match

1.73

1.53

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Tanabi SP U20

0.76

Jose Bonifacio EC U20

1.73

allows per match

Tanabi SP U20

1.53

Jose Bonifacio EC U20

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tanabi SP U20+0.00on par

Jose Bonifacio EC U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanabi SP U20 ↓

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Tanabi SP U20 or draw

53%

Tanabi SP U20 or Jose Bonifacio EC U20

75%

Draw or Jose Bonifacio EC U20

72%

Winning margin

Tanabi SP U20 wins by 2+

11%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Tanabi SP U20 1+ goals

70%

Tanabi SP U20 2+ goals

34%

Tanabi SP U20 3+ goals

12%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 1+ goals

80%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 2+ goals

48%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Tanabi SP U20 (draw refunded)

37%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanabi SP U20 at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanabi SP U20 attack 0.76 + Jose Bonifacio EC U20 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.20

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 attack 1.73 + Tanabi SP U20 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tanabi SP U20 scores more

28%

level

25%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 scores more

47%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jose Bonifacio EC U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

N. Moreira

56'

F. Davi

57'

M. Vergara

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff