Jose Bonifacio EC U20 1–0 Tanabi SP U20

Jose Bonifacio EC U20

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tanabi SP U20

G. Andrade 35'

5/3/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Antônio Pereira Braga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Jose Bonifacio EC U2050%

×Draw23%

Tanabi SP U2026%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jose Bonifacio EC U20Expected goals in this matchTanabi SP U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.24

Jose Bonifacio EC U20

1.80

Tanabi SP U20

1.24

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 16 away

1.73

creates per match

1.56

0.91

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Jose Bonifacio EC U20

1.73

Tanabi SP U20

1.56

allows per match

Jose Bonifacio EC U20

0.91

Tanabi SP U20

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jose Bonifacio EC U20+0.00on par

Tanabi SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 ↓

Tanabi SP U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 or draw

74%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 or Tanabi SP U20

77%

Draw or Tanabi SP U20

50%

Winning margin

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 wins by 2+

28%

Tanabi SP U20 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 1+ goals

83%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 2+ goals

54%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 3+ goals

27%

Tanabi SP U20 1+ goals

71%

Tanabi SP U20 2+ goals

35%

Tanabi SP U20 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 (draw refunded)

66%

Tanabi SP U20 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Tanabi SP U20 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 attack 1.73 + Tanabi SP U20 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.80

Tanabi SP U20 attack 1.56 + Jose Bonifacio EC U20 defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 scores more

50%

level

23%

Tanabi SP U20 scores more

26%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jose Bonifacio EC U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

G. Andrade

45+4'

R. Novais

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff