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Tampines Rovers vs Johor Darul Takzim FC — AFC Cup 2018

Tampines Rovers
Tampines Rovers
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Johor Darul Takzim FC
Johor Darul Takzim FC
3/6/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Jalan Besar Stadium (Singapore)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tampines Rovers65%
×Draw20%
Johor Darul Takzim FC15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tampines Rovers
2.05
Johor Darul Takzim FC
0.86

Tampines Rovers creates 138% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 3 away

creates per match

Tampines Rovers
2.11
Johor Darul Takzim FC
0.00

allows per match

Tampines Rovers
1.72
Johor Darul Takzim FC
2.00

finishing

Tampines Rovers+0.00on par
Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampines Rovers ↓

Johor Darul Takzim FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tampines Rovers or draw
85%
Tampines Rovers or Johor Darul Takzim FC
80%
Draw or Johor Darul Takzim FC
35%

Winning margin

Tampines Rovers wins by 2+
40%
Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tampines Rovers 1+ goals
87%
Tampines Rovers 2+ goals
61%
Tampines Rovers 3+ goals
33%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals
58%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals
21%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tampines Rovers (draw refunded)
81%
Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampines Rovers at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampines Rovers attack 2.11 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.05

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 0.00 + Tampines Rovers defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Tampines Rovers scores more
65%
level
20%
Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more
15%

Tampines Rovers at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Tampines Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tampines Rovers vs Johor Darul Takzim FC

Tampines Rovers and Johor Darul Takzim FC drew 0-0 in AFC Cup on March 6, 2018.

The match was played at Jalan Besar Stadium (Singapore).