Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Johor Darul Takzim FC vs Tampines Rovers — AFC Cup 2018

Johor Darul Takzim FC
Johor Darul Takzim FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Tampines Rovers
Tampines Rovers
3/14/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 4Tan Sri Dato' Hj Hassan Yunos Stadium (Johor Bahru)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC57%
×Draw21%
Tampines Rovers22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Johor Darul Takzim FC
2.13
Tampines Rovers
1.27

Johor Darul Takzim FC creates 68% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

creates per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC
2.67
Tampines Rovers
1.53

allows per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.00
Tampines Rovers
1.60

finishing

Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par
Tampines Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Johor Darul Takzim FC ↓

Tampines Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Johor Darul Takzim FC or draw
78%
Johor Darul Takzim FC or Tampines Rovers
79%
Draw or Tampines Rovers
43%

Winning margin

Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+
35%
Tampines Rovers wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals
88%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals
63%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals
35%
Tampines Rovers 1+ goals
72%
Tampines Rovers 2+ goals
36%
Tampines Rovers 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)
72%
Tampines Rovers (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Johor Darul Takzim FC at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Tampines Rovers away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 2.67 + Tampines Rovers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.13

Tampines Rovers attack 1.53 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more
57%
level
21%
Tampines Rovers scores more
22%

Johor Darul Takzim FC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Johor Darul Takzim FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Johor Darul Takzim FC vs Tampines Rovers

Johor Darul Takzim FC beat Tampines Rovers 2-1 in AFC Cup on March 14, 2018.

The match was played at Tan Sri Dato' Hj Hassan Yunos Stadium (Johor Bahru).