Tampico Madero 1–2 Atletico San Luis

Tampico Madero

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico San Luis

7/28/2018

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 2Estadio Tamaulipas (Tampico y Ciudad Madero)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Tampico Madero34%

×Draw29%

Atletico San Luis37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tampico MaderoExpected goals in this matchAtletico San Luis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.11

Tampico Madero

1.05

Atletico San Luis

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 22 away

1.15

creates per match

1.27

0.95

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Tampico Madero

1.15

Atletico San Luis

1.27

allows per match

Tampico Madero

0.95

Atletico San Luis

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tampico Madero+0.00on par

Atletico San Luis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampico Madero ↓

Atletico San Luis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tampico Madero or draw

63%

Tampico Madero or Atletico San Luis

71%

Draw or Atletico San Luis

66%

Winning margin

Tampico Madero wins by 2+

13%

Atletico San Luis wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tampico Madero 1+ goals

65%

Tampico Madero 2+ goals

28%

Tampico Madero 3+ goals

9%

Atletico San Luis 1+ goals

67%

Atletico San Luis 2+ goals

30%

Atletico San Luis 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tampico Madero (draw refunded)

48%

Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampico Madero at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.95 · 66 matches

Atletico San Luis away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampico Madero attack 1.15 + Atletico San Luis defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Atletico San Luis attack 1.27 + Tampico Madero defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tampico Madero scores more

34%

level

29%

Atletico San Luis scores more

37%

Atletico San Luis at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atletico San Luis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff