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Atletico San Luis vs Tampico Madero — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Atletico San Luis
Atletico San Luis
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Tampico Madero
Tampico Madero
1/12/2019Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 2Estadio Alfonso Lastras Ramírez (San Luis Potosí)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Atletico San Luis48%
×Draw29%
Tampico Madero23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico San Luis
1.28
Tampico Madero
0.79

Atletico San Luis creates 62% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 64 away

creates per match

Atletico San Luis
1.39
Tampico Madero
0.91

allows per match

Atletico San Luis
0.67
Tampico Madero
1.17

finishing

Atletico San Luis+0.00on par
Tampico Madero+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico San Luis ↓

Tampico Madero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Atletico San Luis or draw
77%
Atletico San Luis or Tampico Madero
71%
Draw or Tampico Madero
52%

Winning margin

Atletico San Luis wins by 2+
22%
Tampico Madero wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atletico San Luis 1+ goals
72%
Atletico San Luis 2+ goals
37%
Atletico San Luis 3+ goals
14%
Tampico Madero 1+ goals
55%
Tampico Madero 2+ goals
19%
Tampico Madero 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)
68%
Tampico Madero (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico San Luis at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.67 · 18 matches

Tampico Madero away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico San Luis attack 1.39 + Tampico Madero defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

Tampico Madero attack 0.91 + Atletico San Luis defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atletico San Luis scores more
48%
level
29%
Tampico Madero scores more
23%

Atletico San Luis at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atletico San Luis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico San Luis vs Tampico Madero

Atletico San Luis beat Tampico Madero 2-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on January 12, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Alfonso Lastras Ramírez (San Luis Potosí).