Tampere United 3–1 PIF: Result & Stats

Tampere United

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

PIF

8/12/2023

Kakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 14Kauppi 3 TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Tampere United51%

×Draw23%

PIF26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tampere UnitedExpected goals in this matchPIF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.29

Tampere United

1.87

PIF

1.29

Tampere United creates 45% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 31 away

1.84

creates per match

1.29

1.30

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Tampere United

1.84

PIF

1.29

allows per match

Tampere United

1.30

PIF

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tampere United+0.00on par

PIF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampere United ↓

PIF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Tampere United or draw

74%

Tampere United or PIF

77%

Draw or PIF

49%

Winning margin

Tampere United wins by 2+

29%

PIF wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tampere United 1+ goals

85%

Tampere United 2+ goals

56%

Tampere United 3+ goals

29%

PIF 1+ goals

72%

PIF 2+ goals

37%

PIF 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tampere United (draw refunded)

66%

PIF (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampere United at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.30 · 44 matches

PIF away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.90 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampere United attack 1.84 + PIF defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.87

PIF attack 1.29 + Tampere United defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tampere United scores more

51%

level

23%

PIF scores more

26%

Tampere United at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tampere United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff