PIF 1–2 Tampere United: Result & Stats

PIF

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Tampere United

5/21/2023

Kakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 4Pajbackan kenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

PIF48%

×Draw21%

Tampere United30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PIFExpected goals in this matchTampere United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.58

PIF

2.04

Tampere United

1.58

PIF creates 29% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 44 away

2.00

creates per match

1.55

1.60

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

PIF

2.00

Tampere United

1.55

allows per match

PIF

1.60

Tampere United

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PIF+0.00on par

Tampere United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PIF ↓

Tampere United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

PIF or draw

70%

PIF or Tampere United

79%

Draw or Tampere United

52%

Winning margin

PIF wins by 2+

28%

Tampere United wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

PIF 1+ goals

87%

PIF 2+ goals

60%

PIF 3+ goals

33%

Tampere United 1+ goals

79%

Tampere United 2+ goals

47%

Tampere United 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

PIF (draw refunded)

62%

Tampere United (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PIF at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

Tampere United away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.07 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PIF attack 2.00 + Tampere United defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.04

Tampere United attack 1.55 + PIF defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

PIF scores more

48%

level

21%

Tampere United scores more

30%

PIF at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "PIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff