Tampa Bay United 6–1 Swan City: Result & Stats

Tampa Bay United

FT

6 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Swan City

7/5/2023

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 15Tournament Sportsplex of Tampa Bay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Tampa Bay United68%

×Draw19%

Swan City13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tampa Bay UnitedExpected goals in this matchSwan City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.86

Tampa Bay United

2.23

Swan City

0.86

Tampa Bay United creates 159% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 12 away

1.62

creates per match

0.58

1.14

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Tampa Bay United

1.62

Swan City

0.58

allows per match

Tampa Bay United

1.14

Swan City

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tampa Bay United+0.00on par

Swan City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampa Bay United ↓

Swan City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Tampa Bay United or draw

87%

Tampa Bay United or Swan City

81%

Draw or Swan City

32%

Winning margin

Tampa Bay United wins by 2+

44%

Swan City wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Tampa Bay United 1+ goals

89%

Tampa Bay United 2+ goals

65%

Tampa Bay United 3+ goals

38%

Swan City 1+ goals

58%

Swan City 2+ goals

21%

Swan City 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tampa Bay United (draw refunded)

84%

Swan City (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampa Bay United at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Swan City away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampa Bay United attack 1.62 + Swan City defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.23

Swan City attack 0.58 + Tampa Bay United defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Tampa Bay United scores more

68%

level

19%

Swan City scores more

13%

Tampa Bay United at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Tampa Bay United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff