Swan City 2–3 Tampa Bay United: Result & Stats

Swan City

FT

2 – 3

Tampa Bay United

5/24/2023

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 3Lake Myrtle Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Swan City40%

×Draw27%

Tampa Bay United33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swan CityExpected goals in this matchTampa Bay United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.18

Swan City

1.34

Tampa Bay United

1.18

Swan City creates 14% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 25 away

1.00

creates per match

1.28

1.08

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Swan City

1.00

Tampa Bay United

1.28

allows per match

Swan City

1.08

Tampa Bay United

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swan City+0.00on par

Tampa Bay United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swan City ↓

Tampa Bay United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Swan City or draw

67%

Swan City or Tampa Bay United

73%

Draw or Tampa Bay United

60%

Winning margin

Swan City wins by 2+

19%

Tampa Bay United wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Swan City 1+ goals

74%

Swan City 2+ goals

39%

Swan City 3+ goals

15%

Tampa Bay United 1+ goals

69%

Tampa Bay United 2+ goals

33%

Tampa Bay United 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Swan City (draw refunded)

55%

Tampa Bay United (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swan City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Tampa Bay United away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swan City attack 1.00 + Tampa Bay United defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.34

Tampa Bay United attack 1.28 + Swan City defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Swan City scores more

40%

level

27%

Tampa Bay United scores more

33%

Swan City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Swan City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Swan City 2–3 Tampa Bay United

Tampa Bay United beat Swan City 3-2 in USL League Two on May 24, 2023.

The match was played at Lake Myrtle Sports Park in Auburndale, Florida.

Swan City vs Tampa Bay United — USL League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

USL League Two: Swan City 2–3 Tampa Bay United