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Tampa Bay United vs Florida Elite — USL League Two 2018

Tampa Bay United
Tampa Bay United
CANC
23:00
Florida Elite
Florida Elite
6/29/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 53Tournament Sportsplex of Tampa Bay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tampa Bay United44%
×Draw25%
Florida Elite31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tampa Bay United
1.52
Florida Elite
1.25

Tampa Bay United creates 22% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 27 away

creates per match

Tampa Bay United
1.62
Florida Elite
1.37

allows per match

Tampa Bay United
1.14
Florida Elite
1.41

finishing

Tampa Bay United+0.00on par
Florida Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampa Bay United ↓

Florida Elite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tampa Bay United or draw
69%
Tampa Bay United or Florida Elite
75%
Draw or Florida Elite
56%

Winning margin

Tampa Bay United wins by 2+
22%
Florida Elite wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tampa Bay United 1+ goals
78%
Tampa Bay United 2+ goals
45%
Tampa Bay United 3+ goals
20%
Florida Elite 1+ goals
71%
Florida Elite 2+ goals
36%
Florida Elite 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tampa Bay United (draw refunded)
58%
Florida Elite (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampa Bay United at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Florida Elite away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampa Bay United attack 1.62 + Florida Elite defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

Florida Elite attack 1.37 + Tampa Bay United defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tampa Bay United scores more
44%
level
25%
Florida Elite scores more
31%

Tampa Bay United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tampa Bay United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tampa Bay United vs Florida Elite — Match Preview

Tampa Bay United face Florida Elite on June 29, 2022 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Tampa Bay United host Florida Elite at Tournament Sportsplex of Tampa Bay.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.