Florida Elite 3–0 Tampa Bay United: Result & Stats

Florida Elite

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tampa Bay United

5/28/2022

USL League Two · Round 16Mandarin High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Florida Elite57%

×Draw22%

Tampa Bay United20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Florida EliteExpected goals in this matchTampa Bay United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.04

Florida Elite

1.90

Tampa Bay United

1.04

Florida Elite creates 83% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 25 away

2.11

creates per match

1.28

0.81

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Florida Elite

2.11

Tampa Bay United

1.28

allows per match

Florida Elite

0.81

Tampa Bay United

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Florida Elite+0.00on par

Tampa Bay United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Florida Elite ↓

Tampa Bay United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Florida Elite or draw

80%

Florida Elite or Tampa Bay United

78%

Draw or Tampa Bay United

43%

Winning margin

Florida Elite wins by 2+

33%

Tampa Bay United wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Florida Elite 1+ goals

85%

Florida Elite 2+ goals

56%

Florida Elite 3+ goals

29%

Tampa Bay United 1+ goals

65%

Tampa Bay United 2+ goals

28%

Tampa Bay United 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Florida Elite (draw refunded)

74%

Tampa Bay United (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Florida Elite at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.81 · 27 matches

Tampa Bay United away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Florida Elite attack 2.11 + Tampa Bay United defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.90

Tampa Bay United attack 1.28 + Florida Elite defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Florida Elite scores more

57%

level

22%

Tampa Bay United scores more

20%

Florida Elite at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Florida Elite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Florida Elite 3–0 Tampa Bay United

Florida Elite beat Tampa Bay United 3-0 in USL League Two on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Mandarin High School in Jacksonville, Florida.

Florida Elite vs Tampa Bay United — USL League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

USL League Two: Florida Elite 3–0 Tampa Bay United