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Tampa Bay United vs Caledonia — USL League Two 2018

Tampa Bay United
Tampa Bay United
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Caledonia
Caledonia
6/8/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 28Tournament Sportsplex of Tampa Bay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tampa Bay United71%
×Draw17%
Caledonia12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tampa Bay United
2.38
Caledonia
0.85

Tampa Bay United creates 180% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 7 away

creates per match

Tampa Bay United
1.62
Caledonia
0.57

allows per match

Tampa Bay United
1.14
Caledonia
3.14

finishing

Tampa Bay United+0.00on par
Caledonia+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampa Bay United ↓

Caledonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Tampa Bay United or draw
88%
Tampa Bay United or Caledonia
83%
Draw or Caledonia
29%

Winning margin

Tampa Bay United wins by 2+
48%
Caledonia wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Tampa Bay United 1+ goals
91%
Tampa Bay United 2+ goals
68%
Tampa Bay United 3+ goals
42%
Caledonia 1+ goals
57%
Caledonia 2+ goals
21%
Caledonia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tampa Bay United (draw refunded)
86%
Caledonia (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampa Bay United at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Caledonia away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampa Bay United attack 1.62 + Caledonia defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.38

Caledonia attack 0.57 + Tampa Bay United defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Tampa Bay United scores more
71%
level
17%
Caledonia scores more
12%

Tampa Bay United at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Tampa Bay United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Tampa Bay United 3–0 Caledonia

Tampa Bay United beat Caledonia 3-0 in USL League Two on June 8, 2022.

The match was played at Tournament Sportsplex of Tampa Bay in Tampa.