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Caledonia vs Tampa Bay United — USL League Two 2018

Caledonia
Caledonia
FT
0 – 4
Tampa Bay United
Tampa Bay United
5/14/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 3Feltrim Sports Village

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Caledonia26%
×Draw26%
Tampa Bay United48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caledonia
1.00
Tampa Bay United
1.48

Tampa Bay United creates 48% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 25 away

creates per match

Caledonia
0.33
Tampa Bay United
1.28

allows per match

Caledonia
1.67
Tampa Bay United
1.68

finishing

Caledonia+0.00on par
Tampa Bay United+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caledonia ↓

Tampa Bay United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Caledonia or draw
52%
Caledonia or Tampa Bay United
74%
Draw or Tampa Bay United
74%

Winning margin

Caledonia wins by 2+
9%
Tampa Bay United wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Caledonia 1+ goals
63%
Caledonia 2+ goals
26%
Caledonia 3+ goals
8%
Tampa Bay United 1+ goals
77%
Tampa Bay United 2+ goals
43%
Tampa Bay United 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Caledonia (draw refunded)
35%
Tampa Bay United (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caledonia at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Tampa Bay United away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caledonia attack 0.33 + Tampa Bay United defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.00

Tampa Bay United attack 1.28 + Caledonia defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Caledonia scores more
26%
level
26%
Tampa Bay United scores more
48%

Tampa Bay United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tampa Bay United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Caledonia 0–4 Tampa Bay United

Tampa Bay United beat Caledonia 4-0 in USL League Two on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Feltrim Sports Village in Haines City, Florida.