Tampa Bay Rowdies 2–2 San Antonio: Result & Stats

Tampa Bay Rowdies

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

San Antonio

3/16/2024

USL Championship · Round 2Al Lang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Tampa Bay Rowdies50%

×Draw24%

San Antonio26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tampa Bay RowdiesExpected goals in this matchSan Antonio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.17

Tampa Bay Rowdies

1.73

San Antonio

1.17

Tampa Bay Rowdies creates 48% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 135 away

2.01

creates per match

1.29

1.05

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Tampa Bay Rowdies

2.01

San Antonio

1.29

allows per match

Tampa Bay Rowdies

1.05

San Antonio

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tampa Bay Rowdies+0.00on par

San Antonio+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampa Bay Rowdies ↓

San Antonio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Tampa Bay Rowdies or draw

74%

Tampa Bay Rowdies or San Antonio

76%

Draw or San Antonio

50%

Winning margin

Tampa Bay Rowdies wins by 2+

27%

San Antonio wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tampa Bay Rowdies 1+ goals

82%

Tampa Bay Rowdies 2+ goals

52%

Tampa Bay Rowdies 3+ goals

25%

San Antonio 1+ goals

69%

San Antonio 2+ goals

33%

San Antonio 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tampa Bay Rowdies (draw refunded)

66%

San Antonio (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampa Bay Rowdies at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.05 · 140 matches

San Antonio away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.45 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampa Bay Rowdies attack 2.01 + San Antonio defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.73

San Antonio attack 1.29 + Tampa Bay Rowdies defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tampa Bay Rowdies scores more

50%

level

24%

San Antonio scores more

26%

Tampa Bay Rowdies at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tampa Bay Rowdies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff