San Antonio 1–0 Tampa Bay Rowdies: Result & Stats

San Antonio

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tampa Bay Rowdies

7/13/2025

USL Championship · Round 19Toyota Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

San Antonio44%

×Draw26%

Tampa Bay Rowdies30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San AntonioExpected goals in this matchTampa Bay Rowdies

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.19

San Antonio

1.48

Tampa Bay Rowdies

1.19

San Antonio creates 24% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 136 away

1.74

creates per match

1.35

1.02

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

San Antonio

1.74

Tampa Bay Rowdies

1.35

allows per match

San Antonio

1.02

Tampa Bay Rowdies

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Antonio+0.00on par

Tampa Bay Rowdies+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Antonio ↓

Tampa Bay Rowdies →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

San Antonio or draw

70%

San Antonio or Tampa Bay Rowdies

74%

Draw or Tampa Bay Rowdies

56%

Winning margin

San Antonio wins by 2+

21%

Tampa Bay Rowdies wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

San Antonio 1+ goals

77%

San Antonio 2+ goals

43%

San Antonio 3+ goals

19%

Tampa Bay Rowdies 1+ goals

70%

Tampa Bay Rowdies 2+ goals

33%

Tampa Bay Rowdies 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

San Antonio (draw refunded)

59%

Tampa Bay Rowdies (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Antonio at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.02 · 139 matches

Tampa Bay Rowdies away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.21 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Antonio attack 1.74 + Tampa Bay Rowdies defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.48

Tampa Bay Rowdies attack 1.35 + San Antonio defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

San Antonio scores more

44%

level

26%

Tampa Bay Rowdies scores more

30%

San Antonio at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "San Antonio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff