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Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Nashville — USL Championship 2018

Tampa Bay Rowdies
Tampa Bay Rowdies
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nashville
Nashville
6/9/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 22Al Lang Stadium (St. Petersburg, Florida)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Tampa Bay Rowdies44%
×Draw26%
Nashville30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.48
Nashville
1.17

Tampa Bay Rowdies creates 26% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 34 away

creates per match

Tampa Bay Rowdies
2.02
Nashville
1.29

allows per match

Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.05
Nashville
0.94

finishing

Tampa Bay Rowdies+0.00on par
Nashville+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampa Bay Rowdies ↓

Nashville →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tampa Bay Rowdies or draw
70%
Tampa Bay Rowdies or Nashville
74%
Draw or Nashville
56%

Winning margin

Tampa Bay Rowdies wins by 2+
22%
Nashville wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tampa Bay Rowdies 1+ goals
77%
Tampa Bay Rowdies 2+ goals
43%
Tampa Bay Rowdies 3+ goals
19%
Nashville 1+ goals
69%
Nashville 2+ goals
33%
Nashville 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tampa Bay Rowdies (draw refunded)
60%
Nashville (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampa Bay Rowdies at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.05 · 139 matches

Nashville away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampa Bay Rowdies attack 2.02 + Nashville defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.48

Nashville attack 1.29 + Tampa Bay Rowdies defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tampa Bay Rowdies scores more
44%
level
26%
Nashville scores more
30%

Tampa Bay Rowdies at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tampa Bay Rowdies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Nashville

Tampa Bay Rowdies and Nashville drew 1-1 in USL Championship on June 9, 2018.

The match was played at Al Lang Stadium (St. Petersburg, Florida).