Nashville 1–2 Tampa Bay Rowdies: Result & Stats

Nashville

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Tampa Bay Rowdies

9/19/2018

USL Championship · Round 49First Tennessee Park (Nashville, Tennessee)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Nashville46%

×Draw27%

Tampa Bay Rowdies27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NashvilleExpected goals in this matchTampa Bay Rowdies

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.04

Nashville

1.43

Tampa Bay Rowdies

1.04

Nashville creates 38% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 135 away

1.67

creates per match

1.33

0.75

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Nashville

1.67

Tampa Bay Rowdies

1.33

allows per match

Nashville

0.75

Tampa Bay Rowdies

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nashville+0.00on par

Tampa Bay Rowdies+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nashville ↓

Tampa Bay Rowdies →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Nashville or draw

73%

Nashville or Tampa Bay Rowdies

73%

Draw or Tampa Bay Rowdies

54%

Winning margin

Nashville wins by 2+

22%

Tampa Bay Rowdies wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Nashville 1+ goals

76%

Nashville 2+ goals

42%

Nashville 3+ goals

17%

Tampa Bay Rowdies 1+ goals

65%

Tampa Bay Rowdies 2+ goals

28%

Tampa Bay Rowdies 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nashville (draw refunded)

63%

Tampa Bay Rowdies (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nashville at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

Tampa Bay Rowdies away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.19 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nashville attack 1.67 + Tampa Bay Rowdies defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.43

Tampa Bay Rowdies attack 1.33 + Nashville defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nashville scores more

46%

level

27%

Tampa Bay Rowdies scores more

27%

Nashville at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nashville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff