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Tampa Bay Rowdies vs CF Montreal — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Tampa Bay Rowdies
Tampa Bay Rowdies
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CF Montreal
CF Montreal
2/14/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tampa Bay Rowdies62%
×Draw22%
CF Montreal16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.88
CF Montreal
0.83

Tampa Bay Rowdies creates 127% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.75
CF Montreal
1.67

allows per match

Tampa Bay Rowdies
0.00
CF Montreal
2.00

finishing

Tampa Bay Rowdies+0.00on par
CF Montreal+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampa Bay Rowdies ↓

CF Montreal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tampa Bay Rowdies or draw
84%
Tampa Bay Rowdies or CF Montreal
78%
Draw or CF Montreal
38%

Winning margin

Tampa Bay Rowdies wins by 2+
37%
CF Montreal wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tampa Bay Rowdies 1+ goals
85%
Tampa Bay Rowdies 2+ goals
56%
Tampa Bay Rowdies 3+ goals
29%
CF Montreal 1+ goals
56%
CF Montreal 2+ goals
20%
CF Montreal 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tampa Bay Rowdies (draw refunded)
79%
CF Montreal (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampa Bay Rowdies at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.00 · 4 matches

CF Montreal away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampa Bay Rowdies attack 1.75 + CF Montreal defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

CF Montreal attack 1.67 + Tampa Bay Rowdies defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Tampa Bay Rowdies scores more
62%
level
22%
CF Montreal scores more
16%

Tampa Bay Rowdies at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Tampa Bay Rowdies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tampa Bay Rowdies vs CF Montreal

Tampa Bay Rowdies beat CF Montreal 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 14, 2026.