CF Montreal 5–1 Tampa Bay Rowdies: Result & Stats

CF Montreal

5 – 1

Tampa Bay Rowdies

4/11/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Al Lang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

CF Montreal58%

×Draw20%

Tampa Bay Rowdies22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF MontrealExpected goals in this matchTampa Bay Rowdies

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.29

CF Montreal

2.21

Tampa Bay Rowdies

1.29

CF Montreal creates 71% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.67

creates per match

1.25

1.33

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

CF Montreal

1.67

Tampa Bay Rowdies

1.25

allows per match

CF Montreal

1.33

Tampa Bay Rowdies

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Montreal+0.00on par

Tampa Bay Rowdies+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Montreal ↓

Tampa Bay Rowdies →

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

CF Montreal or draw

78%

CF Montreal or Tampa Bay Rowdies

80%

Draw or Tampa Bay Rowdies

42%

Winning margin

CF Montreal wins by 2+

36%

Tampa Bay Rowdies wins by 2+

Team goals

CF Montreal 1+ goals

89%

CF Montreal 2+ goals

65%

CF Montreal 3+ goals

38%

Tampa Bay Rowdies 1+ goals

72%

Tampa Bay Rowdies 2+ goals

37%

Tampa Bay Rowdies 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

CF Montreal (draw refunded)

73%

Tampa Bay Rowdies (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CF Montreal at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Tampa Bay Rowdies away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CF Montreal attack 1.67 + Tampa Bay Rowdies defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.21

Tampa Bay Rowdies attack 1.25 + CF Montreal defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

CF Montreal scores more

58%

level

20%

Tampa Bay Rowdies scores more

22%

CF Montreal at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "CF Montreal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff