Tammeka II 1–0 Tallinna Kalev II: Result & Stats

Tammeka II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tallinna Kalev II

5/16/2019

Esiliiga A · Round 11Tartu Sepa tänava staadion (Tartu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tammeka II59%

×Draw21%

Tallinna Kalev II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tammeka IIExpected goals in this matchTallinna Kalev II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.16

Tammeka II

2.13

Tallinna Kalev II

1.16

Tammeka II creates 84% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 55 away

1.72

creates per match

1.53

0.78

allows per match

2.53

creates per match

Tammeka II

1.72

Tallinna Kalev II

1.53

allows per match

Tammeka II

0.78

Tallinna Kalev II

2.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tammeka II+0.00on par

Tallinna Kalev II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tammeka II ↓

Tallinna Kalev II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Tammeka II or draw

80%

Tammeka II or Tallinna Kalev II

79%

Draw or Tallinna Kalev II

41%

Winning margin

Tammeka II wins by 2+

36%

Tallinna Kalev II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tammeka II 1+ goals

88%

Tammeka II 2+ goals

63%

Tammeka II 3+ goals

35%

Tallinna Kalev II 1+ goals

69%

Tallinna Kalev II 2+ goals

32%

Tallinna Kalev II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tammeka II (draw refunded)

75%

Tallinna Kalev II (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tammeka II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

Tallinna Kalev II away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.53 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tammeka II attack 1.72 + Tallinna Kalev II defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.13

Tallinna Kalev II attack 1.53 + Tammeka II defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Tammeka II scores more

59%

level

21%

Tallinna Kalev II scores more

20%

Tammeka II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Tammeka II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff