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Tallinna Kalev II vs Tammeka II — Esiliiga A 2026

Tallinna Kalev II
Tallinna Kalev II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Tammeka II
Tammeka II
3/7/2019Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 1Sportland Arena (Tallinn)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tallinna Kalev II37%
×Draw21%
Tammeka II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tallinna Kalev II
1.88
Tammeka II
1.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 18 away

creates per match

Tallinna Kalev II
1.49
Tammeka II
1.56

allows per match

Tallinna Kalev II
2.40
Tammeka II
2.28

finishing

Tallinna Kalev II+0.00on par
Tammeka II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tallinna Kalev II ↓

Tammeka II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Tallinna Kalev II or draw
59%
Tallinna Kalev II or Tammeka II
79%
Draw or Tammeka II
63%

Winning margin

Tallinna Kalev II wins by 2+
20%
Tammeka II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Tallinna Kalev II 1+ goals
85%
Tallinna Kalev II 2+ goals
56%
Tallinna Kalev II 3+ goals
29%
Tammeka II 1+ goals
86%
Tammeka II 2+ goals
59%
Tammeka II 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Tallinna Kalev II (draw refunded)
48%
Tammeka II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tallinna Kalev II at home — creates 1.49, concedes 2.40 · 55 matches

Tammeka II away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tallinna Kalev II attack 1.49 + Tammeka II defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.88

Tammeka II attack 1.56 + Tallinna Kalev II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tallinna Kalev II scores more
37%
level
21%
Tammeka II scores more
41%

Tammeka II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tammeka II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: Tallinna Kalev II 2–1 Tammeka II

Tallinna Kalev II beat Tammeka II 2-1 in Esiliiga A on March 7, 2019.

The match was played at Sportland Arena (Tallinn).