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Tammeka II vs Rakvere Tarvas — Esiliiga A 2026

Tammeka II
Tammeka II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Rakvere Tarvas
Rakvere Tarvas
3/17/2019Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 2Tartu Sepa tänava staadion (Tartu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tammeka II74%
×Draw16%
Rakvere Tarvas10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tammeka II
2.47
Rakvere Tarvas
0.80

Tammeka II creates 209% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Tammeka II
1.72
Rakvere Tarvas
0.83

allows per match

Tammeka II
0.78
Rakvere Tarvas
3.22

finishing

Tammeka II+0.00on par
Rakvere Tarvas+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tammeka II ↓

Rakvere Tarvas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Tammeka II or draw
90%
Tammeka II or Rakvere Tarvas
84%
Draw or Rakvere Tarvas
26%

Winning margin

Tammeka II wins by 2+
51%
Rakvere Tarvas wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Tammeka II 1+ goals
91%
Tammeka II 2+ goals
70%
Tammeka II 3+ goals
44%
Rakvere Tarvas 1+ goals
55%
Rakvere Tarvas 2+ goals
19%
Rakvere Tarvas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tammeka II (draw refunded)
88%
Rakvere Tarvas (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tammeka II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

Rakvere Tarvas away — creates 0.83, concedes 3.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tammeka II attack 1.72 + Rakvere Tarvas defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.47

Rakvere Tarvas attack 0.83 + Tammeka II defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Tammeka II scores more
74%
level
16%
Rakvere Tarvas scores more
10%

Tammeka II at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Tammeka II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tammeka II 2 – 0 Rakvere Tarvas

Tammeka II beat Rakvere Tarvas 2-0 in Esiliiga A on March 17, 2019.

The match was played at Tartu Sepa tänava staadion (Tartu).