Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rakvere Tarvas vs Tammeka II — Esiliiga A 2026

Rakvere Tarvas
Rakvere Tarvas
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Tammeka II
Tammeka II
6/20/2019Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 16Vinni staadion (Vinni)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Rakvere Tarvas35%
×Draw22%
Tammeka II43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rakvere Tarvas
1.69
Tammeka II
1.89

Tammeka II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Rakvere Tarvas
1.11
Tammeka II
1.56

allows per match

Rakvere Tarvas
2.22
Tammeka II
2.28

finishing

Rakvere Tarvas+0.00on par
Tammeka II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rakvere Tarvas ↓

Tammeka II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Rakvere Tarvas or draw
57%
Rakvere Tarvas or Tammeka II
78%
Draw or Tammeka II
65%

Winning margin

Rakvere Tarvas wins by 2+
17%
Tammeka II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Rakvere Tarvas 1+ goals
82%
Rakvere Tarvas 2+ goals
50%
Rakvere Tarvas 3+ goals
24%
Tammeka II 1+ goals
85%
Tammeka II 2+ goals
56%
Tammeka II 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Rakvere Tarvas (draw refunded)
45%
Tammeka II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rakvere Tarvas at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

Tammeka II away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rakvere Tarvas attack 1.11 + Tammeka II defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.69

Tammeka II attack 1.56 + Rakvere Tarvas defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rakvere Tarvas scores more
35%
level
22%
Tammeka II scores more
43%

Tammeka II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tammeka II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: Rakvere Tarvas 0–3 Tammeka II

Tammeka II beat Rakvere Tarvas 3-0 in Esiliiga A on June 20, 2019.

The match was played at Vinni staadion (Vinni).