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Tammeka II vs Legion — Esiliiga A 2026

Tammeka II
Tammeka II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Legion
Legion
7/4/2019Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 19Tartu Sepa tänava staadion (Tartu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tammeka II50%
×Draw23%
Legion28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tammeka II
1.88
Legion
1.36

Tammeka II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 37 away

creates per match

Tammeka II
1.72
Legion
1.95

allows per match

Tammeka II
0.78
Legion
2.05

finishing

Tammeka II+0.00on par
Legion+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tammeka II ↓

Legion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Tammeka II or draw
72%
Tammeka II or Legion
77%
Draw or Legion
50%

Winning margin

Tammeka II wins by 2+
28%
Legion wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tammeka II 1+ goals
85%
Tammeka II 2+ goals
56%
Tammeka II 3+ goals
29%
Legion 1+ goals
74%
Legion 2+ goals
39%
Legion 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Tammeka II (draw refunded)
64%
Legion (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tammeka II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

Legion away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.05 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tammeka II attack 1.72 + Legion defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.88

Legion attack 1.95 + Tammeka II defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tammeka II scores more
50%
level
23%
Legion scores more
28%

Tammeka II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tammeka II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tammeka II vs Legion

Tammeka II and Legion drew 1-1 in Esiliiga A on July 4, 2019.

The match was played at Tartu Sepa tänava staadion (Tartu).