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Legion vs Tammeka II — Esiliiga A 2026

Legion
Legion
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tammeka II
Tammeka II
3/31/2019Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 3Wismari staadion (Tallinn)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Legion54%
×Draw20%
Tammeka II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legion
2.41
Tammeka II
1.66

Legion creates 45% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 18 away

creates per match

Legion
2.54
Tammeka II
1.56

allows per match

Legion
1.76
Tammeka II
2.28

finishing

Legion+0.00on par
Tammeka II+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legion ↓

Tammeka II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Legion or draw
74%
Legion or Tammeka II
80%
Draw or Tammeka II
46%

Winning margin

Legion wins by 2+
34%
Tammeka II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Legion 1+ goals
91%
Legion 2+ goals
69%
Legion 3+ goals
43%
Tammeka II 1+ goals
81%
Tammeka II 2+ goals
49%
Tammeka II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Legion (draw refunded)
67%
Tammeka II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legion at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.76 · 37 matches

Tammeka II away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legion attack 2.54 + Tammeka II defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.41

Tammeka II attack 1.56 + Legion defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Legion scores more
54%
level
20%
Tammeka II scores more
26%

Legion at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Legion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: Legion 3–0 Tammeka II

Legion beat Tammeka II 3-0 in Esiliiga A on March 31, 2019.

The match was played at Wismari staadion (Tallinn).