Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tammeka II vs Elva — Esiliiga A 2026

Tammeka II
Tammeka II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Elva
Elva
10/17/2019Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 33Tartu Sepa tänava staadion (Tartu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tammeka II54%
×Draw23%
Elva23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tammeka II
1.81
Elva
1.09

Tammeka II creates 66% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 126 away

creates per match

Tammeka II
1.72
Elva
1.40

allows per match

Tammeka II
0.78
Elva
1.90

finishing

Tammeka II+0.00on par
Elva+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tammeka II ↓

Elva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tammeka II or draw
77%
Tammeka II or Elva
77%
Draw or Elva
46%

Winning margin

Tammeka II wins by 2+
30%
Elva wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tammeka II 1+ goals
84%
Tammeka II 2+ goals
54%
Tammeka II 3+ goals
27%
Elva 1+ goals
66%
Elva 2+ goals
30%
Elva 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tammeka II (draw refunded)
70%
Elva (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tammeka II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

Elva away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tammeka II attack 1.72 + Elva defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.81

Elva attack 1.40 + Tammeka II defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tammeka II scores more
54%
level
23%
Elva scores more
23%

Tammeka II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tammeka II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: Tammeka II 1–0 Elva

Tammeka II beat Elva 1-0 in Esiliiga A on October 17, 2019.

The match was played at Tartu Sepa tänava staadion (Tartu).