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Elva vs Tammeka II — Esiliiga A 2026

Elva
Elva
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Tammeka II
Tammeka II
6/3/2019Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 14Nike Arena Elva (Elva)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Elva51%
×Draw21%
Tammeka II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elva
2.12
Tammeka II
1.54

Elva creates 38% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 18 away

creates per match

Elva
1.96
Tammeka II
1.56

allows per match

Elva
1.53
Tammeka II
2.28

finishing

Elva+0.00on par
Tammeka II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elva ↓

Tammeka II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Elva or draw
72%
Elva or Tammeka II
79%
Draw or Tammeka II
49%

Winning margin

Elva wins by 2+
30%
Tammeka II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Elva 1+ goals
88%
Elva 2+ goals
62%
Elva 3+ goals
35%
Tammeka II 1+ goals
79%
Tammeka II 2+ goals
45%
Tammeka II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Elva (draw refunded)
64%
Tammeka II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elva at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.53 · 129 matches

Tammeka II away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elva attack 1.96 + Tammeka II defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.12

Tammeka II attack 1.56 + Elva defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Elva scores more
51%
level
21%
Tammeka II scores more
28%

Elva at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Elva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elva vs Tammeka II

Elva beat Tammeka II 3-2 in Esiliiga A on June 3, 2019.

The match was played at Nike Arena Elva (Elva).