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Tambuti vs Rangers FC — Premier League 2020

Tambuti
Tambuti
FT
2 – 1
Rangers FC
Rangers FC
3/5/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Mayaluka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Tambuti36%
×Draw28%
Rangers FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tambuti
1.21
Rangers FC
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 56 away

creates per match

Tambuti
1.02
Rangers FC
0.93

allows per match

Tambuti
1.49
Rangers FC
1.39

finishing

Tambuti+0.00on par
Rangers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambuti ↓

Rangers FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tambuti or draw
64%
Tambuti or Rangers FC
72%
Draw or Rangers FC
64%

Winning margin

Tambuti wins by 2+
15%
Rangers FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tambuti 1+ goals
70%
Tambuti 2+ goals
34%
Tambuti 3+ goals
12%
Rangers FC 1+ goals
70%
Rangers FC 2+ goals
34%
Rangers FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tambuti (draw refunded)
50%
Rangers FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambuti at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.49 · 43 matches

Rangers FC away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.39 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambuti attack 1.02 + Rangers FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Rangers FC attack 0.93 + Tambuti defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tambuti scores more
36%
level
28%
Rangers FC scores more
36%

Tambuti at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Tambuti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tambuti vs Rangers FC

Tambuti beat Rangers FC 2-1 in Premier League on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Mayaluka Stadium in Mayaluka.