Rangers FC 2–1 Tambuti: Result & Stats

Rangers FC

FT

2 – 1

Tambuti

11/13/2021

Premier League · Round 2King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Rangers FC43%

×Draw26%

Tambuti31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rangers FCExpected goals in this matchTambuti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.17

Rangers FC

1.45

Tambuti

1.17

Rangers FC creates 24% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 41 away

1.02

creates per match

0.98

1.36

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Rangers FC

1.02

Tambuti

0.98

allows per match

Rangers FC

1.36

Tambuti

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rangers FC+0.00on par

Tambuti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers FC ↓

Tambuti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rangers FC or draw

69%

Rangers FC or Tambuti

74%

Draw or Tambuti

57%

Winning margin

Rangers FC wins by 2+

21%

Tambuti wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Rangers FC 1+ goals

77%

Rangers FC 2+ goals

42%

Rangers FC 3+ goals

18%

Tambuti 1+ goals

69%

Tambuti 2+ goals

33%

Tambuti 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rangers FC (draw refunded)

59%

Tambuti (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers FC at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

Tambuti away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.88 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers FC attack 1.02 + Tambuti defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.45

Tambuti attack 0.98 + Rangers FC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rangers FC scores more

43%

level

26%

Tambuti scores more

31%

Rangers FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rangers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff