Tambov 2–5 Lokomotiv Moscow: Result & Stats

Tambov

FT

2 – 5

HT: 1 – 1

Lokomotiv Moscow

4/24/2021

Premier League · Round 27Mordovia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Tambov30%

×Draw25%

Lokomotiv Moscow45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TambovExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.56

Tambov

1.21

Lokomotiv Moscow

1.56

Lokomotiv Moscow creates 29% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 120 away

1.00

creates per match

1.52

1.59

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Tambov

1.00

Lokomotiv Moscow

1.52

allows per match

Tambov

1.59

Lokomotiv Moscow

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tambov+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambov ↓

Lokomotiv Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Tambov or draw

55%

Tambov or Lokomotiv Moscow

75%

Draw or Lokomotiv Moscow

70%

Winning margin

Tambov wins by 2+

12%

Lokomotiv Moscow wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Tambov 1+ goals

70%

Tambov 2+ goals

34%

Tambov 3+ goals

12%

Lokomotiv Moscow 1+ goals

79%

Lokomotiv Moscow 2+ goals

46%

Lokomotiv Moscow 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Tambov (draw refunded)

39%

Lokomotiv Moscow (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambov at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.59 · 29 matches

Lokomotiv Moscow away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.43 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambov attack 1.00 + Lokomotiv Moscow defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Lokomotiv Moscow attack 1.52 + Tambov defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tambov scores more

30%

level

25%

Lokomotiv Moscow scores more

45%

Lokomotiv Moscow at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff