Lokomotiv Moscow 1–0 Tambov: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv Moscow

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tambov

9/20/2020

Premier League · Round 8RZD Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Lokomotiv Moscow59%

×Draw23%

Tambov18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv MoscowExpected goals in this matchTambov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.91

Lokomotiv Moscow

1.84

Tambov

0.91

Lokomotiv Moscow creates 102% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 30 away

1.69

creates per match

0.80

1.02

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Lokomotiv Moscow

1.69

Tambov

0.80

allows per match

Lokomotiv Moscow

1.02

Tambov

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Moscow+0.00on par

Tambov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Moscow ↓

Tambov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Moscow or draw

82%

Lokomotiv Moscow or Tambov

77%

Draw or Tambov

41%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Moscow wins by 2+

34%

Tambov wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Moscow 1+ goals

84%

Lokomotiv Moscow 2+ goals

55%

Lokomotiv Moscow 3+ goals

28%

Tambov 1+ goals

60%

Tambov 2+ goals

23%

Tambov 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Moscow (draw refunded)

76%

Tambov (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Moscow at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

Tambov away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Moscow attack 1.69 + Tambov defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.84

Tambov attack 0.80 + Lokomotiv Moscow defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Lokomotiv Moscow scores more

59%

level

23%

Tambov scores more

18%

Lokomotiv Moscow at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff