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Tambov vs Fakel Voronezh — First League 2018

Tambov
Tambov
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
5/4/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 35Stadion Spartak (Tambov)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tambov47%
×Draw26%
Fakel Voronezh27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tambov
1.47
Fakel Voronezh
1.03

Tambov creates 43% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 89 away

creates per match

Tambov
1.62
Fakel Voronezh
1.20

allows per match

Tambov
0.86
Fakel Voronezh
1.31

finishing

Tambov+0.00on par
Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambov ↓

Fakel Voronezh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tambov or draw
73%
Tambov or Fakel Voronezh
74%
Draw or Fakel Voronezh
53%

Winning margin

Tambov wins by 2+
23%
Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tambov 1+ goals
77%
Tambov 2+ goals
43%
Tambov 3+ goals
18%
Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
64%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
28%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tambov (draw refunded)
64%
Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambov at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.31 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambov attack 1.62 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.47

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.20 + Tambov defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tambov scores more
47%
level
26%
Fakel Voronezh scores more
27%

Tambov at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tambov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Tambov 0–0 Fakel Voronezh

Tambov and Fakel Voronezh drew 0-0 in First League on May 4, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak (Tambov).