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Fakel Voronezh vs Tambov — First League 2018

Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tambov
Tambov
10/20/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 17Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov (Voronezh)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Fakel Voronezh36%
×Draw31%
Tambov33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel Voronezh
1.03
Tambov
0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 20 away

creates per match

Fakel Voronezh
1.16
Tambov
1.20

allows per match

Fakel Voronezh
0.72
Tambov
0.90

finishing

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par
Tambov+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel Voronezh ↓

Tambov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Fakel Voronezh or draw
67%
Fakel Voronezh or Tambov
69%
Draw or Tambov
64%

Winning margin

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
14%
Tambov wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
64%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
28%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
9%
Tambov 1+ goals
62%
Tambov 2+ goals
25%
Tambov 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
53%
Tambov (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel Voronezh at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.72 · 90 matches

Tambov away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.16 + Tambov defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.03

Tambov attack 1.20 + Fakel Voronezh defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Fakel Voronezh scores more
36%
level
31%
Tambov scores more
33%

Fakel Voronezh at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Fakel Voronezh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fakel Voronezh vs Tambov

Fakel Voronezh and Tambov drew 0-0 in First League on October 20, 2018.

The match was played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov (Voronezh).