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Tambankulu Callies vs Mbabane Swallows — Premier League 2020

Tambankulu Callies
Tambankulu Callies
FT
4 – 2
Mbabane Swallows
Mbabane Swallows
12/29/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Tambankulu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Tambankulu Callies27%
×Draw28%
Mbabane Swallows45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tambankulu Callies
0.93
Mbabane Swallows
1.29

Mbabane Swallows creates 39% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 83 away

creates per match

Tambankulu Callies
1.05
Mbabane Swallows
1.37

allows per match

Tambankulu Callies
1.21
Mbabane Swallows
0.81

finishing

Tambankulu Callies+0.00on par
Mbabane Swallows+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambankulu Callies ↓

Mbabane Swallows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tambankulu Callies or draw
55%
Tambankulu Callies or Mbabane Swallows
72%
Draw or Mbabane Swallows
73%

Winning margin

Tambankulu Callies wins by 2+
9%
Mbabane Swallows wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Tambankulu Callies 1+ goals
61%
Tambankulu Callies 2+ goals
24%
Tambankulu Callies 3+ goals
7%
Mbabane Swallows 1+ goals
72%
Mbabane Swallows 2+ goals
37%
Mbabane Swallows 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tambankulu Callies (draw refunded)
37%
Mbabane Swallows (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambankulu Callies at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 43 matches

Mbabane Swallows away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.81 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambankulu Callies attack 1.05 + Mbabane Swallows defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.93

Mbabane Swallows attack 1.37 + Tambankulu Callies defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tambankulu Callies scores more
27%
level
28%
Mbabane Swallows scores more
45%

Mbabane Swallows at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mbabane Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tambankulu Callies 4–2 Mbabane Swallows

Tambankulu Callies beat Mbabane Swallows 4-2 in Premier League on December 29, 2021.

The match was played at Tambankulu Stadium in Tambankulu.