Mbabane Swallows 6–0 Tambankulu Callies

Mbabane Swallows

FT

6 – 0

Tambankulu Callies

4/15/2023

Premier League · Round 16Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Mbabane Swallows59%

×Draw25%

Tambankulu Callies16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mbabane SwallowsExpected goals in this matchTambankulu Callies

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.72

Mbabane Swallows

1.63

Tambankulu Callies

0.72

Mbabane Swallows creates 126% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 42 away

1.74

creates per match

0.74

0.71

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Mbabane Swallows

1.74

Tambankulu Callies

0.74

allows per match

Mbabane Swallows

0.71

Tambankulu Callies

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mbabane Swallows+0.00on par

Tambankulu Callies+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbabane Swallows ↓

Tambankulu Callies →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Mbabane Swallows or draw

84%

Mbabane Swallows or Tambankulu Callies

75%

Draw or Tambankulu Callies

41%

Winning margin

Mbabane Swallows wins by 2+

32%

Tambankulu Callies wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Mbabane Swallows 1+ goals

80%

Mbabane Swallows 2+ goals

48%

Mbabane Swallows 3+ goals

22%

Tambankulu Callies 1+ goals

51%

Tambankulu Callies 2+ goals

16%

Tambankulu Callies 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Mbabane Swallows (draw refunded)

78%

Tambankulu Callies (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbabane Swallows at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.71 · 85 matches

Tambankulu Callies away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbabane Swallows attack 1.74 + Tambankulu Callies defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.63

Tambankulu Callies attack 0.74 + Mbabane Swallows defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Mbabane Swallows scores more

59%

level

25%

Tambankulu Callies scores more

16%

Mbabane Swallows at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Mbabane Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff