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Tambankulu Callies vs Highlanders — Premier League 2020

Tambankulu Callies
Tambankulu Callies
FT
0 – 1
Highlanders
Highlanders
4/2/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Tambankulu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Tambankulu Callies29%
×Draw29%
Highlanders42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tambankulu Callies
0.99
Highlanders
1.25

Highlanders creates 26% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 83 away

creates per match

Tambankulu Callies
1.05
Highlanders
1.29

allows per match

Tambankulu Callies
1.21
Highlanders
0.92

finishing

Tambankulu Callies+0.00on par
Highlanders+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambankulu Callies ↓

Highlanders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tambankulu Callies or draw
58%
Tambankulu Callies or Highlanders
71%
Draw or Highlanders
71%

Winning margin

Tambankulu Callies wins by 2+
11%
Highlanders wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Tambankulu Callies 1+ goals
63%
Tambankulu Callies 2+ goals
26%
Tambankulu Callies 3+ goals
8%
Highlanders 1+ goals
71%
Highlanders 2+ goals
36%
Highlanders 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tambankulu Callies (draw refunded)
41%
Highlanders (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambankulu Callies at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 43 matches

Highlanders away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.92 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambankulu Callies attack 1.05 + Highlanders defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.99

Highlanders attack 1.29 + Tambankulu Callies defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tambankulu Callies scores more
29%
level
29%
Highlanders scores more
42%

Highlanders at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Highlanders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tambankulu Callies 0–1 Highlanders

Highlanders beat Tambankulu Callies 1-0 in Premier League on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Tambankulu Stadium in Tambankulu.