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Highlanders vs Tambankulu Callies — Premier League 2020

Highlanders
Highlanders
FT
2 – 1
Tambankulu Callies
Tambankulu Callies
6/13/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Highlanders53%
×Draw26%
Tambankulu Callies21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Highlanders
1.55
Tambankulu Callies
0.87

Highlanders creates 78% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 42 away

creates per match

Highlanders
1.58
Tambankulu Callies
0.74

allows per match

Highlanders
1.00
Tambankulu Callies
1.52

finishing

Highlanders+0.00on par
Tambankulu Callies+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Highlanders ↓

Tambankulu Callies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Highlanders or draw
79%
Highlanders or Tambankulu Callies
74%
Draw or Tambankulu Callies
47%

Winning margin

Highlanders wins by 2+
28%
Tambankulu Callies wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Highlanders 1+ goals
79%
Highlanders 2+ goals
46%
Highlanders 3+ goals
20%
Tambankulu Callies 1+ goals
58%
Tambankulu Callies 2+ goals
22%
Tambankulu Callies 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Highlanders (draw refunded)
72%
Tambankulu Callies (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Highlanders at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.00 · 85 matches

Tambankulu Callies away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Highlanders attack 1.58 + Tambankulu Callies defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.55

Tambankulu Callies attack 0.74 + Highlanders defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Highlanders scores more
53%
level
26%
Tambankulu Callies scores more
21%

Highlanders at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Highlanders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Highlanders vs Tambankulu Callies

Highlanders beat Tambankulu Callies 2-1 in Premier League on June 13, 2021.

The match was played at Prince of Wales Stadium in Mbabane.