Tamale City 3–0 Kotoku Royals: Result & Stats

Tamale City

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Kotoku Royals

J. Mensah 70'

M. Agama 45'

S. Eduku 29'

2/4/2023

Premier League · Round 16Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tamale City65%

×Draw21%

Kotoku Royals14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tamale CityExpected goals in this matchKotoku Royals

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.76

Tamale City

1.94

Kotoku Royals

0.76

Tamale City creates 155% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.82

creates per match

0.59

0.94

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Tamale City

1.82

Kotoku Royals

0.59

allows per match

Tamale City

0.94

Kotoku Royals

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tamale City+0.00on par

Kotoku Royals+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamale City ↓

Kotoku Royals →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Tamale City or draw

86%

Tamale City or Kotoku Royals

79%

Draw or Kotoku Royals

35%

Winning margin

Tamale City wins by 2+

40%

Kotoku Royals wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Tamale City 1+ goals

86%

Tamale City 2+ goals

58%

Tamale City 3+ goals

30%

Kotoku Royals 1+ goals

53%

Kotoku Royals 2+ goals

18%

Kotoku Royals 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Tamale City (draw refunded)

82%

Kotoku Royals (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tamale City at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Kotoku Royals away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tamale City attack 1.82 + Kotoku Royals defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.94

Kotoku Royals attack 0.59 + Tamale City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Tamale City scores more

65%

level

21%

Kotoku Royals scores more

14%

Tamale City at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Tamale City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

S. Eduku

45'

M. Agama

70'

J. Mensah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff