Kotoku Royals 4–1 Tamale City: Result & Stats

Kotoku Royals

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Tamale City

T. Mensah 82'

F. A. Kumi 63', 21'

R. Amoah 16'

Unknown 39'

6/4/2023

Premier League · Round 33Dawu Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kotoku Royals48%

×Draw28%

Tamale City24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kotoku RoyalsExpected goals in this matchTamale City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.85

Kotoku Royals

1.35

Tamale City

0.85

Kotoku Royals creates 59% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.47

creates per match

0.41

1.29

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Kotoku Royals

1.47

Tamale City

0.41

allows per match

Kotoku Royals

1.29

Tamale City

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kotoku Royals+0.00on par

Tamale City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotoku Royals ↓

Tamale City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Kotoku Royals or draw

76%

Kotoku Royals or Tamale City

72%

Draw or Tamale City

52%

Winning margin

Kotoku Royals wins by 2+

23%

Tamale City wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kotoku Royals 1+ goals

74%

Kotoku Royals 2+ goals

39%

Kotoku Royals 3+ goals

15%

Tamale City 1+ goals

57%

Tamale City 2+ goals

21%

Tamale City 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Kotoku Royals (draw refunded)

67%

Tamale City (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotoku Royals at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Tamale City away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotoku Royals attack 1.47 + Tamale City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Tamale City attack 0.41 + Kotoku Royals defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kotoku Royals scores more

48%

level

28%

Tamale City scores more

24%

Kotoku Royals at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kotoku Royals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

R. Amoah

21'

F. A. Kumi

39'

40'

T. Mensah← T. Mensah

51'

58'

F. Okai← F. Okai

63'

F. A. Kumi

79'

82'

T. Mensah

84'

W. Kwabena← W. Kwabena

87'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff