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Tamale City vs Bibiani Gold Stars — Premier League 2019

Tamale City
Tamale City
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Bibiani Gold Stars
Bibiani Gold Stars
S. Eduku 54', 8'
A. Tetteh 90+7', 74'
E. Appau 45+2'
1/28/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tamale City57%
×Draw24%
Bibiani Gold Stars18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tamale City
1.66
Bibiani Gold Stars
0.82

Tamale City creates 102% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 84 away

creates per match

Tamale City
1.82
Bibiani Gold Stars
0.70

allows per match

Tamale City
0.94
Bibiani Gold Stars
1.50

finishing

Tamale City+0.00on par
Bibiani Gold Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamale City ↓

Bibiani Gold Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tamale City or draw
82%
Tamale City or Bibiani Gold Stars
76%
Draw or Bibiani Gold Stars
43%

Winning margin

Tamale City wins by 2+
31%
Bibiani Gold Stars wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tamale City 1+ goals
81%
Tamale City 2+ goals
49%
Tamale City 3+ goals
23%
Bibiani Gold Stars 1+ goals
56%
Bibiani Gold Stars 2+ goals
20%
Bibiani Gold Stars 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tamale City (draw refunded)
76%
Bibiani Gold Stars (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tamale City at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Bibiani Gold Stars away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tamale City attack 1.82 + Bibiani Gold Stars defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.66

Bibiani Gold Stars attack 0.70 + Tamale City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Tamale City scores more
57%
level
24%
Bibiani Gold Stars scores more
18%

Tamale City at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Tamale City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
S. Eduku
45+2'
E. Appau
54'
S. Eduku
74'
A. Tetteh
90+7'
A. Tetteh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tamale City vs Bibiani Gold Stars

Bibiani Gold Stars beat Tamale City 3-2 in Premier League on January 28, 2023.

Goals: S. Eduku (8', 54'), E. Appau (45+2'), A. Tetteh (74', 90+7').

The match was played at Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium in Tamale.