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Bibiani Gold Stars vs Tamale City — Premier League 2019

Bibiani Gold Stars
Bibiani Gold Stars
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tamale City
Tamale City
A. Tetteh 80', 47' (pen)
5/21/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 31Bibiani Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bibiani Gold Stars59%
×Draw27%
Tamale City13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bibiani Gold Stars
1.41
Tamale City
0.51

Bibiani Gold Stars creates 176% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bibiani Gold Stars
1.58
Tamale City
0.41

allows per match

Bibiani Gold Stars
0.61
Tamale City
1.24

finishing

Bibiani Gold Stars+0.00on par
Tamale City+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bibiani Gold Stars ↓

Tamale City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bibiani Gold Stars or draw
87%
Bibiani Gold Stars or Tamale City
73%
Draw or Tamale City
41%

Winning margin

Bibiani Gold Stars wins by 2+
30%
Tamale City wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Bibiani Gold Stars 1+ goals
76%
Bibiani Gold Stars 2+ goals
41%
Bibiani Gold Stars 3+ goals
17%
Tamale City 1+ goals
40%
Tamale City 2+ goals
9%
Tamale City 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Bibiani Gold Stars (draw refunded)
82%
Tamale City (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bibiani Gold Stars at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.61 · 84 matches

Tamale City away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bibiani Gold Stars attack 1.58 + Tamale City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.41

Tamale City attack 0.41 + Bibiani Gold Stars defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bibiani Gold Stars scores more
59%
level
27%
Tamale City scores more
13%

Bibiani Gold Stars at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bibiani Gold Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
47'
A. TettehPenalty
74'
80'
A. Tetteh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bibiani Gold Stars vs Tamale City

Bibiani Gold Stars beat Tamale City 2-0 in Premier League on May 21, 2023.

Goals: A. Tetteh (47' pen, 80').

The match was played at Bibiani Park in Bibiani.