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Tamale City vs Berekum Chelsea — Premier League 2019

Tamale City
Tamale City
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Berekum Chelsea
Berekum Chelsea
11/11/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tamale City58%
×Draw24%
Berekum Chelsea18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tamale City
1.69
Berekum Chelsea
0.83

Tamale City creates 104% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 110 away

creates per match

Tamale City
1.82
Berekum Chelsea
0.72

allows per match

Tamale City
0.94
Berekum Chelsea
1.56

finishing

Tamale City+0.00on par
Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamale City ↓

Berekum Chelsea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tamale City or draw
82%
Tamale City or Berekum Chelsea
76%
Draw or Berekum Chelsea
42%

Winning margin

Tamale City wins by 2+
32%
Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tamale City 1+ goals
82%
Tamale City 2+ goals
50%
Tamale City 3+ goals
24%
Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals
56%
Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals
20%
Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tamale City (draw refunded)
76%
Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tamale City at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Berekum Chelsea away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.56 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tamale City attack 1.82 + Berekum Chelsea defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.69

Berekum Chelsea attack 0.72 + Tamale City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Tamale City scores more
58%
level
24%
Berekum Chelsea scores more
18%

Tamale City at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Tamale City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tamale City vs Berekum Chelsea

Tamale City and Berekum Chelsea drew 2-2 in Premier League on November 11, 2022.

The match was played at Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium in Tamale.