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Berekum Chelsea vs Tamale City — Premier League 2019

Berekum Chelsea
Berekum Chelsea
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tamale City
Tamale City
3/26/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Golden City Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Berekum Chelsea56%
×Draw30%
Tamale City15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berekum Chelsea
1.28
Tamale City
0.50

Berekum Chelsea creates 156% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 17 away

creates per match

Berekum Chelsea
1.32
Tamale City
0.41

allows per match

Berekum Chelsea
0.59
Tamale City
1.24

finishing

Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par
Tamale City+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berekum Chelsea ↓

Tamale City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Berekum Chelsea or draw
85%
Berekum Chelsea or Tamale City
70%
Draw or Tamale City
44%

Winning margin

Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+
27%
Tamale City wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals
72%
Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals
37%
Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals
14%
Tamale City 1+ goals
39%
Tamale City 2+ goals
9%
Tamale City 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)
79%
Tamale City (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berekum Chelsea at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.59 · 111 matches

Tamale City away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berekum Chelsea attack 1.32 + Tamale City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.28

Tamale City attack 0.41 + Berekum Chelsea defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Berekum Chelsea scores more
56%
level
30%
Tamale City scores more
15%

Berekum Chelsea at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Berekum Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Berekum Chelsea vs Tamale City

Berekum Chelsea and Tamale City drew 1-1 in Premier League on March 26, 2023.

The match was played at Golden City Park in Berekum.